穆迪：2020年美天然气出口份额可能会翻一番自吸水泵

中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯7月2日报道，世界三大评级机构之一穆迪公司分析师表示，在可预见的未来，全球对美国液化天然气的需求不足以迫使美国天然气价格超出该机构预计的2.50美元/百万英热至3.50美元/百万英热的范围。穆迪表示，天然气产量持续增长，液化天然气需求将足以阻止天然气价格跌破这一水平。

穆迪称：“即使美国出口市场快速增长，我们仍能看到充足的出口供应，因而不会将价格推高至目前价格区间范围之外。相反，我们认为，不断增长的美国出口市场将有助于维持天然气价格的在较低水平，价格可能会下跌，从而威胁到生产总量。”

到2020年初，美国的液化天然气出口能力可能会超过70亿立方英尺/天。穆迪表示， 2019年，液化天然气出口预计将比去年增长75%，这反映出路易斯安那州切涅尔能源公司（Cheniere Energy）Sabine Pass终端的产量的持续增长，以及部分新增终端的投产。

5月，位于路易斯安那州的Sempra能源公司经营的Cameron终端成为美国第四大天然气出口设施。另外两个终端预计将在2019年达到同样的生产水平，分别是Kinder Morgan在乔治亚州的Elba液化天然气项目和德克萨斯州的Freeport液化天然气开发项目。

但随着新终端建设和调试活动的继续进行，美国的液化天然气运输主要来自三个出口工厂，分别是切涅尔的Sabine Pass液化天然气终端、德克萨斯州的Corpus Christi液化天然气终端和马里兰州的Dominion Energy的Cove Point终端。

标准普尔全球市场情报公司（S&P Global Market Intelligence）的管道流量数据显示，5月份这三个终端的天然气平均输送总量达到了历史最高水平，约为44.7亿立方英尺/天。穆迪表示，这一数字约占美国1月份天然气产量的5%。随着新的出口设施投入使用，到2020年，美国天然气产量流向世界市场的份额可能会翻一番。

穆迪表示，预计美国天然气产量将继续超过国内需求。美国能金鲳鱼源信息署预计，到2040年，美国天然气日产量将以1.2%的年率增长，至1150亿立方英尺左右。液化天然气出口将成为美国天然气出口的关键，因为其他领域的需求（如发电和向墨西哥和加拿大的管道出口）将不足以平衡供应过剩。

穆迪称，美国液化天然气出口能力的增长可能会使全球液化天然气市场趋于饱和，并导致短期价格下跌，但全球天然气需求预计将以每年1.7%的速度增长，到20世纪20年代中期，液化天然气市场可能会出现另一个供应缺口。这一缺口可能为美国第二轮供应创造条件，有望出口的企业正争先恐后地对出口项目进行商业制裁，以及时提供资金。

据该报告称，目前，美国有6个项目的液化能力接近100亿立方英尺/天，这些项目计划在2020年至2025年期间投入使用。

并非所有拟议的液化天然气出口项目都将推进建设，但穆迪表示，假设到2024年，美国的液化天然气总出口能力攀升至130亿立方英尺/天至150亿立方英尺/天，这可能使美国成为全球最大的液化天然气出口国。

王佳晶 摘译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

LNG exports will keep floor under US natural gas prices: Moody's

Analysts at the credit rating agency said global demand for US LNG will not be enough to force US gas prices beyond the agency's projected range of $2.50/MMBtu to $3.50/MMBtu for the foreseeable future. But the LNG demand will be sufficient to prevent gas prices from dropping below that as gas production continues to increase, Moody's said.

"Even with a rapidly growing US export market, we see ample supply available for export without模具设计 pushing prices above the range-bound territory where prices appear mired today," Moody's said. "On the contrary, we believe the growing US export market will help maintain a floor under natural gas prices, without which prices could tumble, threatening production aggregates."

<房产中介P>The US LNG export capacity could climb above 7 Bcf/d by early 2020. LNG exports through 2019 are projected to increase 75% from last year, reflecting continued production increases at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana and the partial startup of additional terminals, Moody's said.

In May, the Sempra Energy-led Cameron terminal in Louisiana became the fourth major natural gas export facility in the mainland US to produce LNG. Two other terminals are expected to reach the same milestone in 2019: Kinder Morgan's Elba liquefaction project in Georgia and the Freeport LNG Development project in Texas.

But as construction and commissioning activities continue on the new terminals, US LNG shipments primarily depart from thre皮革机床e export plants: Cheniere's Sabine Pass LNG terminal, its Corpus Christi LNG terminal in Texas, and Dominion Energy's Cove Point terminal in Maryland.

Total average gas deliveries to those three facilities reached an all-time high in May of about 4.47 Bcf/d, pipeline flow data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed. That total amounted to roughly 5% of US dry natural gas production during the month, Moody's said. The share of US gas production headed to world markets could double in 2020 as the new export facilities come online.

US gas production is expected to keep outpacing domestic demand. The US Energy Information Administration has projected production growth at a 1.2% annual rate through 2040 to about 115 Bcf/d, Moody's said. LNG exports will serve as a critical outlet for US gas because demand in other areas, such as power generation and pipeline exports to Mexico and Canada, will not be enough to balance out the oversupply, Moody's said.

The growth in US LNG export capacity could saturate the global LNG market and result in near-term price discounting, but global gas demand is projected to grow up to 1.7% annually and LNG markets could see another supply shortfall by the mid-2020s, Moody's said. That shortfall could make way for a second wave of supply from the US, and export hopefuls are competing to commercially sanction export projects in time to provide it.

For now, almost 10 Bcf/d of liquefaction capacity is under construction in the US across six projects that are scheduled to go into service between 2020 and 2025, according to the report.

Not all of the proposed LNG export projects will advance to construction, but Moody's said it would be realistic to assume that total US LNG export capacity will climb to between 13 Bcf/d and 15 Bcf/d by 2024, which could make the US the world's largest exporter of LNG.

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